CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2015-09-20T18:30:00-CME-001)

:Issued: 2015 Sep 20 2147 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
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# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
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NOAA 2415 produced an M2.1 flare peaking on 20 September at 18:03UT. A gradual rise of the proton flux is observed. It is currently (21:30UT) at 3 pfu, and may reach the event threshold (10 pfu) in the coming hours if the rate of rise persists.

A solid and fast coronal mass ejection (CME) was associated with this flaring event, with a plane-of-the-sky speed near 1250 km/s (CACTus). A type II radio-burst was observed as well (shock speed of 1309 km/s). Very similar to the 18 September CME, it is directed mostly to the south of the ecliptic, but, again, based on the current coronagraphic imagery, a glancing blow cannot be excluded. Its arrival time is then preliminary estimated for the afternoon of 22 September, but can be further finetuned as more data and imagery are received. Minor to major geomagnetic storming is expected from this impact. 
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